Target EntitiesFood Distribution, Perishable Demand Forecasting, Spoilage Reduction, Fill Rate, Shelf Life, ERP Forecasting
Core ValueSee spoilage before it happens, product-level forecasts tuned to shelf life, protect fill rates and accounts, built on the existing ERP
Tech StackERP / WMS integration, Forecasting models, Data Warehouse, BI Dashboard
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Food Distribution

How a food distributor cut preventable spoilage with demand forecasting

A regional perishable food distributor ran on legacy systems and spreadsheets, and spoilage was its biggest controllable cost, invisible until product hit the dumpster. We built a demand prediction system on the existing ERP, tuned to shelf life and each customer’s ordering history.

$200K to $1M

a year in preventable spoilage targeted

12 months

reliable forecast horizon

6 to 8 weeks

from kickoff to live system

Challenge

Spoilage stayed invisible until expiry, and under-ordering shorted deliveries and lost accounts.

What we built

A demand prediction system on the ERP, tuned to shelf life and ordering history.

Result

The SKUs driving spoilage made visible, with fuller trucks planned against real demand.

The challenge

For a typical $40 to $80M perishable distributor, spoilage runs 2 to 5% of perishable COGS, which is $200K to $1M a year in product that expires before it sells, most of it preventable. Under-ordering shorted deliveries and lost accounts worth $50K to $200K each. Nothing connected shelf life, demand and current inventory, so the owner reviewed every order by hand at 5 AM.

What we built

  • Built a demand prediction system on the existing ERP, with product-level forecasts.
  • Tuned forecasts to perishable shelf-life windows and each customer’s ordering history.
  • Delivered forecasts in a simple dashboard, reading from current data, with no system replacement.

How the data flows

Source systems

ERP / WMS
Order history
Shelf-life windows
Demand prediction layer

Reporting

Product-level forecast
Spoilage signals
Fill-rate support

The outcome

Spoilage stopped being an accepted cost. The team could see which 15 to 20 SKUs drove most of it, plan against shelf life, and keep trucks full, protecting both margin and accounts.

Systems & technologies

ERP / WMS integrationForecasting modelsData WarehouseBI Dashboard

Before vs after

Before
BeforeSpoilage accepted as a cost of doing business
AfterThe SKUs driving spoilage made visible
BeforeOrdering by gut feel at 5 AM
AfterProduct-level forecasts from current data
BeforeShorted deliveries losing accounts
AfterFull trucks planned against real demand

Get in touch

Where is margin leaking in your perishable mix?

We can run a diagnostic on your order history and spoilage data in 2 to 3 weeks and show where margin is leaking, no commitment required.

Email us directly

sales@3alica.com