| Target Entities | HVAC Distribution, Demand Forecasting, Inventory Visibility, Branch-Level Forecasting, ERP Forecasting Layer, Seasonal Demand |
|---|---|
| Core Value | Cut forecast preparation time, see demand by branch, fewer stockouts and less excess, built on the existing ERP |
| Tech Stack | ERP integration, Forecasting models, Data Warehouse, BI Dashboard |
HVAC Distribution
How an HVAC distributor cut forecast prep by 40 to 60%
A multi-brand HVAC distributor forecast by hand, branch by branch, so it carried excess stock in some locations and ran short in others, with no way to see the pattern until month-end. We built a forecasting layer on the existing ERP that predicts demand by branch, product and season.
less time on forecast preparation
reliable demand forecast horizon
from kickoff to live system
Challenge
Branch managers ordered on last year plus gut feel, with no view across locations until month-end.
What we built
A forecasting layer on the existing ERP, by branch, product and season.
Result
Far less forecast prep and a 12-month horizon across every branch.
The challenge
Branch managers ordered on last year plus gut feel, so 10 to 15% of inventory sat as excess past season while other branches ran short and paid 15 to 20% freight premiums on rush orders. HQ could not compare demand across branches, so over- and under-stocking stayed invisible until month-end.
What we built
- Built a forecasting layer on the existing ERP that predicts demand by branch, product category and region.
- Tuned it to seasonal cycles so it adapts on its own, with no manual model tuning.
- Delivered it as a 6 to 8 week sprint, with no system replacement.
How the data flows
Source systems
Reporting
The outcome
Forecast preparation dropped by 40 to 60%, the planning horizon stretched to 12 months, and HQ could finally see demand by branch instead of discovering gaps at month-end.
Systems & technologies
Before vs after
Get in touch
Not sure where inventory is costing you?
We can run a diagnostic on your branch data in 2 to 3 weeks and show where inventory gaps are costing you, before you commit to anything.
Email us directly
sales@3alica.com